By now, most of us can pick a well-polished scam quite quickly.
With Terry Riley (bettennis.com.au), its a not well-polished, so initially, it fell into the realms of: “unlikely, but possible”.
I got a call from a “Cathy White” just before I was going to visit a customer. It sounded like a scam, but since she just wanted my email, and permission to send 1 week of betting tips, I decided: why not. She said Terry “lives and breaths tennis”.
So I ended up getting 3 tips from Terry and (without actually betting anything), I checked the outcome, and all 3 were winners.
There is very little information about Terry Riley on the internet.
Since his email tips also show his Varsity lakes address (gold coast, QLD), I figure: a real scammer wouldn’t do something like that.
To prove his past track record, he sends you a scan of hand-written tips for 4 months (Jan 2011 to April 2011), and the results seem reasonable: between 1 and 4 losses per month, and about 14 to 21 wins per month.
Overall, the wins more than cover the losses.
After a lot of thought, I decided that the yearly payment of “only” $600 was a reasonable risk, as I could bet at whatever level I wanted … I was just buying tips, so I wasn’t locked in to losing many thousands of dollars… and I could stop anytime I liked.
So I started a betting account (with a modest amount of money that I could afford to lose), and started receiving Terry’s tips.
After a few months, it I got the feeling that Terry was a big tennis fan, and that someone might have convinced him to use his knowledge of tennis to make some money.
After a few months, it also became obvious that Terry could not pick winners as well as he thought he could.
Sure, in the 10 months since I started receiving his tip, I’ve probably had 2 months that were profitable, and 2 months that were break-even, but otherwise its been a downward slide.
After a few months, Terry decided to introduce 2 tiers of tips: tier1 = tip is likely to win, but tips are less frequent, while tier2 is more frequent, but less likely to win. Obviously I started ignoring all the Tier2 tips.
I’m now down to 15% of the initial money deposited into my betting account. If I had started with the “recommended” $10,000, then I’d be down to just $1,500. Luckily, I used a much smaller starting amount.
To his credit, Terry doesn’t make excuses for any incorrect tips, but when I received 5 losing tips in a row, followed by 10 tips of alternating win-lose outcomes, it became obvious that Terry has either taken his eye off the ball, or he exaggerated his abilities.
After having done some research in this field, Terry’s results are no better than if you randomly pick results yourself, or if you follow a simple rule like: only bet on players whose odds are between 1.1 and 1.2
Verdict: Terry tries hard, but just doesn’t deliver.